Atrium Holdings, a quietly compounding tollbooth
ATRM operates a network of regulated transload terminals across the inland Mississippi corridor. The contract structure is take-or-pay with annual CPI escalators capped at @inflation_assumption/—/2027/base/pct/analyst — a feature management consistently underplays on calls.
The thesis is straightforward: regulated tollbooth, undermanaged narrative. Street models the next four years off a flat 4.2% revenue CAGR; we model @revenue_growth_pct/—/2027/base/pct/analyst after walking Q4 and Q1 KPI prints against actual contract step-ups (see Tegus call excerpts, right pane).
DCF (base case)
| Metric | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 812.0 | 869.6 | 928.3 | 988.0 | 1,047.4 |
| growth | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| EBITDA | 324.8 | 351.1 | 379.5 | 408.1 | 434.6 |
| margin | 40.0% | 40.4% | 40.9% | 41.3% | 41.5% |
| Capex | (88.0) | (90.0) | (92.0) | (94.0) | (96.0) |
| Δ NWC | (12.4) | (13.1) | (13.6) | (13.8) | (13.6) |
| Unlevered FCF | 170.4 | 186.0 | 202.9 | 220.3 | 235.0 |
Where the value sits
WACC of @wacc/—/—/base/pct/analyst assumes a 12.4% cost of equity (industrials beta 0.95, ERP 5.5%) and a 4.8% after-tax cost of debt at the current 32% leverage. Sensitivity grid in the right pane shows the implied per-share value across WACC and terminal multiple.